Good piece, and I think it's unfortunately correct. Harris has failed to differentiate herself with undecided and unaffiliated voters. I believe a lot of that is about Palestine and the increasing violence in the Middle East. In a race this tight, those votes matter, especially in swing states like MI. Her unwillingness to stray from the party line on Israel's right to defend itself will ultimately lose her this election.
So Ken isn’t going to vote for either Kamala or Trump … while I respect his decision. This is why Kamala will lose because people can’t seem to come to grips with the two candidates and to me is a grand standing of sorts that’s not productive. I see that a lot of other people feeling like this are not voting or voting third party ticket. Just because are not voting for Kamala, you will not teach anyone a lesson. You are just letting Trump win, my opinion. I am not fond of either and while contemplating the nuances for both sides, I do not want to see another Trump presidency , which is why I voted for Kamala. I almost wrote in Cenk Uygur’s name in 🤭
Even Cenk Uygur is voting for Kamala ..
Good Luck with Trump and may the odds be Ever in you favor!
Understand your comments but I am not doing anything to let Trump win, I live in DC & the District’s votes will go to Harris independently of how I vote, it votes more heavily Democratic than any of the 50 states. Given that, and that I really don’t like her & I can’t vote for her under the circumstances given her complicity in what’s happening in Gaza , I’m abstaining. But as I said in the story, I hope she wins because Trump & GOP are so incredibly awful & in any event, the story was my best good faith effort as a journalist, not an advocate, to predict who would win. I could be wrong & hope I am.
I think your stance is plain contradictory… Trump will not do better for Gaza and as a matter of fact Trump moved the capital of Israel to Jerusalem at the behest of the Israel government. Nettenyahu loves Trump ! You are worried so much about what’s happening in Gaza and I think it’s devastating and disgusting and disturbing what the IDF is doing. There is so many other things that we also need to be worried about as well not just Gaza
People not living in DC are listening to you and whether u want it or not following in suit with you because you r respected and listened to and perhaps your stance has influenced others in other states well their vote might matter and they decided influenced by your content that they not vote either .. which is why I say it’s a grand standing stance that in reality doesn’t help anyone.
May God Bless us and protect us all from Trump/kamala’s presidency crazies!
I am not one of his supporters either, but if you look at the Congressional Preference, it has broke strongly for R in the final week. That is really a tell. And why Democrats have little to no chance at winning. And Republicans have a great chance at sweeping a majority. Graph is here: https://substack.com/@jeromearmstrong/note/c-75160628
I agree the vibes do feel directionally for Trump, though his MSG show might have sent a bit of a shock through the system. I've leaned into Ettigermentum's analysis of the polls which have been very detailed and he calls it for Kamala at the moment. And he's been very, very critical of everything Biden and Kamala are doing.
Completely agree. The thing that is crazy is Trump is fumbling the bag at the end. He's reminding people why he was so unpopular as a president when all he had to do was not host an ode to the Nazi MSG rally.
Poorly researched article. No mention of the flood of biased unreliable Republican polls over the last few weeks that were intended to do exactly what you're describing--- show a false lead for Trump. A winning campaign would not resort to this tactic. They need it to substantiate the claims of cheating and rigging they'll use to contest the results. Polls don't suddenly change dramatically for no reason and there's only been evidence of Trumps losing steam and falling out of favor.
The polls included in the RCP basket are legit, not the ones you’re citing, and saying “there's only been evidence of Trumps losing steam and falling out of favor,” is unfortunately flatly wrong. Harris’s campaign got off to a good start but has been fumbling for the past month and the poll numbers in the popular vote & swing states clearly reflect that, as noted in the story. You can root for her all you like, and between the 2 of them I hope she wins & hope I’m wrong though I’m not a fan of hers to put it mildly, but the story was not badly researched, like so many other people these days, when you don’t like what the facts show you make up other ones. Have fun in your echo chamber.
You needn't do any of this - the man is a force to be reckoned with. They had to make his lead so insurmountable that no amount of voter fraud this time would allow anyone to believe he lost yet again. It's the exact same intensity you witnessed back in 2016 and how you knew he was going to beat HRC. Only now the magnitude of intensity is beyond astronomical. I don't vote. I never did nor ever will. I am neither Democrat or Republican but everywhere you go, they adore him. It's a cult!
Thanks. I may increase "longform" stuff here, but, I make money at Blogger off links. (NOT "affiliate links" for marketing. Some larger news companies pay for click-throughs still. If I can get that OKed here, I'd migrate more stuff .... )
Good piece, and I think it's unfortunately correct. Harris has failed to differentiate herself with undecided and unaffiliated voters. I believe a lot of that is about Palestine and the increasing violence in the Middle East. In a race this tight, those votes matter, especially in swing states like MI. Her unwillingness to stray from the party line on Israel's right to defend itself will ultimately lose her this election.
Thanks, 100% agree.
So Ken isn’t going to vote for either Kamala or Trump … while I respect his decision. This is why Kamala will lose because people can’t seem to come to grips with the two candidates and to me is a grand standing of sorts that’s not productive. I see that a lot of other people feeling like this are not voting or voting third party ticket. Just because are not voting for Kamala, you will not teach anyone a lesson. You are just letting Trump win, my opinion. I am not fond of either and while contemplating the nuances for both sides, I do not want to see another Trump presidency , which is why I voted for Kamala. I almost wrote in Cenk Uygur’s name in 🤭
Even Cenk Uygur is voting for Kamala ..
Good Luck with Trump and may the odds be Ever in you favor!
Understand your comments but I am not doing anything to let Trump win, I live in DC & the District’s votes will go to Harris independently of how I vote, it votes more heavily Democratic than any of the 50 states. Given that, and that I really don’t like her & I can’t vote for her under the circumstances given her complicity in what’s happening in Gaza , I’m abstaining. But as I said in the story, I hope she wins because Trump & GOP are so incredibly awful & in any event, the story was my best good faith effort as a journalist, not an advocate, to predict who would win. I could be wrong & hope I am.
I think your stance is plain contradictory… Trump will not do better for Gaza and as a matter of fact Trump moved the capital of Israel to Jerusalem at the behest of the Israel government. Nettenyahu loves Trump ! You are worried so much about what’s happening in Gaza and I think it’s devastating and disgusting and disturbing what the IDF is doing. There is so many other things that we also need to be worried about as well not just Gaza
People not living in DC are listening to you and whether u want it or not following in suit with you because you r respected and listened to and perhaps your stance has influenced others in other states well their vote might matter and they decided influenced by your content that they not vote either .. which is why I say it’s a grand standing stance that in reality doesn’t help anyone.
May God Bless us and protect us all from Trump/kamala’s presidency crazies!
I am not one of his supporters either, but if you look at the Congressional Preference, it has broke strongly for R in the final week. That is really a tell. And why Democrats have little to no chance at winning. And Republicans have a great chance at sweeping a majority. Graph is here: https://substack.com/@jeromearmstrong/note/c-75160628
I agree the vibes do feel directionally for Trump, though his MSG show might have sent a bit of a shock through the system. I've leaned into Ettigermentum's analysis of the polls which have been very detailed and he calls it for Kamala at the moment. And he's been very, very critical of everything Biden and Kamala are doing.
Won’t be unhappy if I’m wrong, cited MSG & noted I may well be wrong, 1 million opinions out there, it was merely my best good faith evaluation.
Completely agree. The thing that is crazy is Trump is fumbling the bag at the end. He's reminding people why he was so unpopular as a president when all he had to do was not host an ode to the Nazi MSG rally.
Poorly researched article. No mention of the flood of biased unreliable Republican polls over the last few weeks that were intended to do exactly what you're describing--- show a false lead for Trump. A winning campaign would not resort to this tactic. They need it to substantiate the claims of cheating and rigging they'll use to contest the results. Polls don't suddenly change dramatically for no reason and there's only been evidence of Trumps losing steam and falling out of favor.
The polls included in the RCP basket are legit, not the ones you’re citing, and saying “there's only been evidence of Trumps losing steam and falling out of favor,” is unfortunately flatly wrong. Harris’s campaign got off to a good start but has been fumbling for the past month and the poll numbers in the popular vote & swing states clearly reflect that, as noted in the story. You can root for her all you like, and between the 2 of them I hope she wins & hope I’m wrong though I’m not a fan of hers to put it mildly, but the story was not badly researched, like so many other people these days, when you don’t like what the facts show you make up other ones. Have fun in your echo chamber.
You needn't do any of this - the man is a force to be reckoned with. They had to make his lead so insurmountable that no amount of voter fraud this time would allow anyone to believe he lost yet again. It's the exact same intensity you witnessed back in 2016 and how you knew he was going to beat HRC. Only now the magnitude of intensity is beyond astronomical. I don't vote. I never did nor ever will. I am neither Democrat or Republican but everywhere you go, they adore him. It's a cult!
First, you're right that we lose with either one.
That said, yesterday morning at Blogger, I said 288-250 Harris. https://socraticgadfly.blogspot.com/2024/11/who-wins-my-thoughts.html
you ever think you'll move to substack? Love your stuff btw
Thanks. I may increase "longform" stuff here, but, I make money at Blogger off links. (NOT "affiliate links" for marketing. Some larger news companies pay for click-throughs still. If I can get that OKed here, I'd migrate more stuff .... )
You got it right Ken. Please follow up with a list of all the professional pollsters and related pundits who did not.
Stupid is as stupid does
Last thing in the world id want to be doing is standing next to him !
He smells
Well, we’ll go to bed happy now! 😱